基于三方博弈模型的突发事件网络舆情政府干预时机分析

Analysis on the Timing of Government Intervention in the Network Public Opinion in Emergencies Based on the Three-party Game Model

[目的/意义]探究突发事件网络舆情政府干预时机和应对措施,以期为该类研究提供新思路,为政府及相关部门有效应对突发事件提供借鉴。[方法/过程]详细阐述了研究问题和研究假设,引入政府干预延迟参数a,构建“政府—网民—关键节点”三方博弈演化模型,并分析该类舆情演化过程中三方博弈的过程和结果。通过仿真实验分析不同政府延迟干预程度下各主体策略的演化过程和结果。[结果/结论]结果显示,当a增加时,政府趋向于选择“干预”策略;面对网民和关键节点的不同策略组合,不同的政府延迟干预程度对政府干预意愿产生不同影响。最后,对政府干预突发事件网络舆情的时机和应对措施提供建议。

[Purpose/significance]Based on network public opinions of emergencies,the timing and countermeasures for government intervention are explored,in order to provide new ideas for this kind of research and references for the government and relevant departments to effectively deal with emergencies.[Method/process]Firstly,the research problems and hypotheses are elaborated in detail.Then,the government intervention delay parameter a is introduced to build the three-party game evolution model of“government-netizen-key node”.The process and result of three-party game in the evolution of such public opinion are also analyzed.Finally,simulation experiments are conducted to analyze the evolution process and results of various strategies under different degrees of government delay intervention.[Result/conclusion]The results show that when a increases,the government tends to choose the intervention strategy.In the face of different strategy combinations of netizens and key nodes,different degrees of government delayed intervention have different influences on government intervention willingness.Finally,suggestions are provided on the timing and countermeasures for the government to intervene in the network public opinion of emergencies.