贸易便利化对区域经济体的贸易效应研究--以欧盟货物进口贸易为例

Research on the trade effect of trade fa-cilitation on regional economic entities--Taking the import trade of EU goods as an example

以2014—2019年欧盟货物进口贸易为例,研究贸易便利化水平对区域经济体跨国贸易的影响。首先运用主成分分析法测算了欧盟27国的贸易便利化水平。其次,构建了实证模型分析贸易便利化对欧盟货物进口的影响。结果表明:欧盟贸易便利化水平总体呈“橄榄型”;基础设施水平对欧盟货物进口存在线性的正向效应;规制环境和电子商务对进口贸易的促进效应存在时滞性;海关管理和金融服务对进口贸易的影响分别呈“倒U型”和“U型”;欧盟的OFDI、人均GDP和对外开放程度的提高都将扩大欧盟货物进口的规模,而人口总量的增加反而会起阻碍作用。最后,基于实证结论提出相应的对策建议。

Taking the import trade of EU goods from 2014 to 2019 as an example,this paper studied the impact of the level of trade facilitation on the cross-border trade of regional economic entities.First of all,it used the principal component analysis to calculate the trade facilitation level of 27 EU countries,andthen constructed an empirical model to analyze the impact of trade facilitation on EU goods imports.The results show that the over-all level of EU trade facilitation is“olive-shaped”;Infrastructure level has a linear positive effect on EU goods import;the regulatory environment and e-commerce have a time lag in the promotion of import trade;the im-pact of customs management and financial services on import trade is“inverted U-shaped”and“U-shaped”re-spectively;The EU’s OFDI,per capita GDP and the degree of opening up will expand the scale of EU goods imports,while the increase of the total population will hinder it.Finally,based on the empirical conclusion,this paper put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.