矿用胶带火灾燃烧特性预测模型

Prediction Model of Burning Characteristics of Mine Belt Fire

胶带火灾热释放率是矿井胶带火灾危险性大小的重要参数之一,准确预测其大小对胶带火灾预防具有重要意义.采用锥形量热仪测试空白胶带和运煤胶带,得到热释放率、CO_(2)浓度、CO浓度及产烟率等燃烧参数,并分析了胶带的燃烧性能.结合实验数据,建立基于随机森林模型(RF)的胶带火灾热释放率的预测方法.为了验证随机森林方法的准确性和可靠性,计算平均绝对误差(MAE)、平均绝对百分误差(MAPE)、根均方误差(RMSE)和确定系数(R^(2)).实验结果表明:从胶带燃烧测试实验可以看出空白胶带的点燃时间远小于运煤胶带的点燃时间,且根据胶带的热释放率、残余物质量和生成的CO_(2)浓度来看,相比空白胶带,运煤胶带并不利于燃烧.预测结果表明:随机森林模型的预测结果为MAE<0.2609 kW/m^(2),MAPE<0.007%,RMSE<0.4933,R^(2)=0.9998,表明该模型具有较高的预测精度、较强的泛化能力和良好的鲁棒性,能准确地预测胶带的热释放率,在预测性能指标都达到了较好的效果.

The heat release rate of belt fire is one of the important parameters of mine belt fire risk. It is important to predict the size of belt fire accurately for the prevention of belt fire. In this paper, the blank belt and coal conveying belt were tested by cone calorimeter. The combustion parameters such as heat release rate, CO_(2) concentration, CO concentration and smoke yield were obtained, and the combustion performance of the belt was analyzed. Combined with the experimental data, a prediction method of heat release rate of tape fire was established based on random forest model(RF). In order to verify the accuracy and reliability of random forest method, mean absolute error(MAE), mean absolute percentage error(MAPE), root mean square error(RMSE) and determination coefficient(R^(2)) were calculated. The experimental results show that the ignition time of blank belt is much shorter than that of coal conveying belt.Compared with blank belt, coal conveying belt is not conducive to combustion according to the heat release rate, residual mass and CO_(2) concentration. The results show that the prediction results of random forest model are MAE < 0.260 9 kW/m^(2), MAPE < 0.007%, RMSE < 0.493 3, R^(2) = 0.999 8. It shows that the model has high prediction accuracy, strong generalization ability and good robustness. It can accurately predict the heat release rate of belt, and achieves good results in the prediction performance indicators.