河北省小麦产量区域分布及影响因素分析

Analysis on Regional Distribution and Influencing Factors of Wheat Yield in Hebei Province

小麦是河北省主要粮食作物,产量的高低对保障农户收益至关重要.文章以2007-2019年河北省129个县(市)小麦产量为基础,采用聚类分析法分析县域小麦产量的空间格局演变,选取产量变动较大的10个县(市)进行农户调研,分析影响小麦产量的主要因素.结果表明:小麦种植面积、成灾面积、是否加入合作社对小麦产量影响最大,新品种和新技术的认知程度、投入的机械费用对小麦产量影响较大,身体健康状况和投入的种子费用对小麦产量没有影响.针对分析结果,从优化小麦种植结构、适度规模经营、建立自然灾害预警机制等方面提出了促进优质小麦产业发展的对策建议.

Wheat is the main grain crop in Hebei Province,and the yield of wheat is more important to improve the income of farmers.Based on the wheat yield of 129 counties in Hebei Province from 2007 to 2019,the spatial pattern evolution of wheat production from the perspective of county level was analyzed in the paper by cluster analysis,and 10 counties with large yield change were selected to conduct farmer investigation by sampling method,and main factors influencing wheat yield from the perspective of farmers were analyzed.The results showed that the planting area,disaster area and whether the growers joined the cooperative had the greatest influence on the yield of wheat.The cognition of new varieties and new technologies and the mechanical cost of the growers had great influence on the yield of wheat.The health status of the growers and the seed cost of planting had no effect on the yield of wheat.According to the analysis results,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for promoting development of high quality wheat industry were put forward from the aspects of optimum of planting structure,moderate scale operation,establishment of natural disaster early warning mechanism.