考虑时空相关性的风光水资源多变量随机模拟

Multivariate Stochastic Simulation of Wind-solar-hydro Resources Considering Spatio-temporal Correlations

风光水多能互补运行是促进新能源消纳、提升流域资源利用率的一种有效手段。同步模拟风光水资源,可为互补系统的规划设计、运行管理以及风险评估等提供可靠的基础数据。以黄河上游千万千瓦级风光水多能互补系统为例,提出一种考虑时空相关性的流域风、光、水资源多变量随机模拟方法。首先,分析风光水资源的时空相关性,选择径流作为模拟的主变量,风、光电出力作为从变量;其次,采用季节性自回归模型对多个时间截口的径流进行模拟;最后,依据径流与风、光出力的相关性分析,采用Copula联结函数以及条件概率公式对光电出力进行模拟,同时采用季节性自回归模型对风电出力进行模拟。结果表明:所提出的方法能够准确模拟出符合历史统计规律的多变量序列。

Complementary operation of wind-solar-hydro resources is an effective mean to promote the consumption of new energy and improve resource use efficiency.Synchronous simulation of wind-solar-hydro resources can provide reliable data for the planning,design,management and risk assessment of the complementary system.Taking ten million-kilowatt-class wind-solar-hydro complementary system upstream Yellow River as an example,after proposing a multivariate stochastic simulation method with consideration of spatio-temporal correlations between wind-solar-hydro resources,this paper firstly analyzes the spatio-temporal correlations of wind-solar-hydro resources,with runoff as the main variable,and wind power and photovoltaic power output as the slave variable for the stochastic simulation;secondly,simulates the runoff in different time series by a seasonal autoregressive model;finally,simulates the photovoltaic power output by the Copula function and conditional probability formula according to the correlation analysis between runoff and wind and photovoltaic power output,as well as the wind power output by a seasonal autoregressive model.The results show that the proposed method can accurately simulate the multivariable time series that can satisfy the historical statistical regularity.