中国货币政策的非线性特征

The Nonlinear Characteristics in China’s Monetary Policy

本文研究了我国利率规则的非线性特征,实证检验了政策性利率对经济周期因素和金融风险因素的非对称反应。研究发现,当经济不景气时,央行对产出下行更加敏感,且倾向于采取更加激进的货币政策,而在较合理的产出区制内,政策性利率对宏观指标的反应不敏感;在金融风险较高时,央行更倾向于盯住产出,而当金融风险较低时,物价稳定似乎是央行主要的政策目标。研究表明我国政策性利率对经济周期因素和金融风险因素有非线性特征,然而,在合理的产出变动区制内,央行不倾向于干预政策性利率。

The paper examines the nonlinear characteristics of China’s interest rate rule, and empirically tests the asymmetric response of policy interest rates to business cycle factors and financial risk factors. The empirical results show that when the economy is in a recession, the central bank is more sensitive to negative output gap and tends to adopt more aggressive monetary policy.In a reasonable output gap zone, the policy interest rate is not sensitive to the macro indicators. Moreover, when the financial risk is high, the central bank is committed to promoting economic growth, and when the financial risk is low, price stability becomes the central bank’s main aim. Studies have shown that China’s policy interest rate has nonlinear characteristics for economic cycle factors and financial risk factors. However, within a reasonable output gap zone, the central bank is not inclined to intervene in the policy interest rate.