中美日全要素生产率的分析与比较——基于理论、方法与数据测算逻辑一致的框架

Analysis and Comparison of Total Factor Productivity in China,the United States,and Japan:In a Framework Combining Theory,Method,and Data Measurement Together

基于理论、方法与数据测算逻辑一致的框架,文章分析和比较中美日三国TFP在1978-2018年的增长状况并探索其增长来源。1978-2018年,中国TFP的年均增长率为0.9%,对经济增长的贡献度为11%,低于美国的20%和日本的24%。中国TFP在整个时期的年均增长率高于美国和日本,但是在三个分时期1978-2001年、2002-2007年和2008-2018年呈现明显的下降趋势,在2008-2018年更是陷入负增长。制造业是三国TFP增长的主要行业来源,服务业对美国TFP的增长也起到重要的促进作用,中国服务业TFP的大幅衰退严重抑制了中国TFP的增长。中国资本的配置主要受政府影响,资本错配现象的产生使其再配置效应在整个时期为负,正的劳动再配置效应得益于劳动者可以遵循市场规律流动。较为完善的市场机制使得美国和日本的资源配置较为有效。

Based on a framework that firmly combines theory, method, and data measurement together, this paper analyzes and compares TFP in China, the United States, and Japan from 1978 to 2018, and explores its growth sources. From 1978 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of China’s TFP was 0.9%, and its contribution to economic growth was 11%, which was lower than the 20% in the United States and 24% in Japan. The average annual growth rate of China’s TFP during the entire period was higher than that of the United States and Japan, while it showed an apparent downward trend over 1978-2001, 2002-2007, and 2008-2018, and turned into negative during 2008-2018. Manufacturing is the main industry source of growth of TFP in the three countries. The service industry has also played an important role in promoting the growth of TFP in the United States. The sharp decline in TFP in China’s service industry has seriously inhibited the growth of TFP in China. The allocation of capital in China is mainly affected by the government. The occurrence of capital misallocation makes capital reallocation effect negative throughout the entire period. The positive labor reallocation effect benefits from the fact that laborers can freely flow by following the market mechanism. The well-developed market mechanism makes the allocation of resources in the United States and Japan more efficient.