中美制造业贸易增加值测度及影响因素分析--基于全球价值链视角

Measurement of Added Value of Sino-US Manufacturing Trade and Analysis of Its Influ encing Fa ctors--Based on the Perspective of Global Value Chain

中美贸易顺差中60%来自制造业贸易。本文基于全球价值链的国际分工视角,采用KWW的增加值测算方法对中美制造业总体和分行业的实际贸易利得进行测度分析,结果表明:相比传统贸易统计方法,贸易增加值下中美制造业贸易中中国实际贸易利得比美国低20%以上。按要素密集度区分的制造业行业增加值测算:美国处于知识型制造业的价值链高端,贸易获利较多;中国的劳动密集型制造业正由全球价值链低端向上逐渐攀升,资本密集型制造业处于全球价值链低端;从增加值角度看,中美制造业贸易差额主要是由知识型制造业贸易差额造成。通过实证分析中国对美国制造业总体和分行业出口国内增加值的影响因素,得出产业上游度对制造业增加值的影响系数为负,比较优势、规模经济和技术创新对制造业增加值均有积极影响。为此,中国应加快人才培养,加强技术创新,构建中国制造业全球价值链,加快与“一带一路”沿线国家制造业贸易合作,促进我国制造业发展。

Based on the pattern of international division of labor in global value chain,this paper measures and analyzes the total value of Sino-US manufacturing and the actual trade gains of manufacturing sub-sectors by using KWW.The research shows that,compared with traditional trade statistics methods,China's actual trade gains in Sino-US manufacturing trade under trade added value are more than 20%lower than those in the United States.Measurement of added value of manufacturing industry by factor intensity:the United States is at the high end of the value chain of knowledge-based manufacturing,with more trade profits;China's labor-intensive manufacturing industry is gradually rising from the low end of the global value chain;China's capital-intensive manufacturing industry is at the low end of the value chain.From the perspective of added value,the trade balance between China and the United States is mainly caused by the trade balance between knowledge-based manufacturing industries.Through the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of China's overall and sub industry export domestic added value of U.S.manufacturing industry,it is concluded that the influence coefficient of industrial upstream on added value is negative,and comparative advantage,economies of scale and technological innovation have a positive impact on manufacturing added value.Therefore,China should speed up talent training,strengthen technological innovation,build a global value chain of China's manufacturing industry,and accelerate manufacturing trade cooperation with countries along"the belt and road",so as to promote the development of China's manufacturing industry.