基于空间效应的我国牛肉产量影响因素分析

Influential factors of beef production in China based on spatial effect

【目的】探究我国牛肉产量的空间关联性,明确影响牛肉产量的空间因素,为我国肉牛生产布局规划提供决策支持,也为提高我国牛肉自给能力提供理论依据。【方法】从空间效应角度出发,基于2010-2019年我国30个省份(不包括西藏和港澳台)的空间面板数据,采用空间杜宾模型考察牛肉产量的空间相关性及影响因素。【结果】2010-2019年我国牛肉产量空间相关特征显著,莫兰指数(Moran’s I)值均大于0.200,其中,2017-2019年空间相关性逐渐增强,Moran’s I值由0.229上升至0.256。从区域层面看,我国黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古、河北、山东、河南和云南等省份牛肉生产呈现高聚集态势。考虑牛肉产量的影响因素,本省份的饲料丰富度、草原面积对牛肉生产有显著的正向促进作用;邻近省份肉牛出栏率、人均GDP的空间溢出效应对牛肉产量有显著的正向影响,人均GDP影响程度远超其他变量,溢出效应系数为0.752,而非农就业机会、交通通达性的空间溢出效应对牛肉产量起到显著的抑制作用,交通通达性的抑制作用较大,溢出效应系数为-0.953;本省份及邻近省份价格预期、畜牧业比较优势共同促进牛肉生产。【建议】为进一步提高我国牛肉产量,政府应把握肉牛变迁规律,在稳定东北、中原地区牛肉产量的基础上,激发西部地区肉牛生产潜力;强化区域技术合作,发挥高产区辐射带动作用,提升全国牛肉供给水平;合理安排运输路径,完善牛肉市场机制,实现牛肉产品在区域间合理调配;注重环境联合治理,实现肉牛生产的绿色可持续发展。

【Objective】In order to explore the spatial correlation of beef production in China,to clarify the spatial fac-tors affecting beef production,to provide decision support for beef production layout planning in China and provide theo-retical basis for improving beef self-sufficiency in China.【Method】From the perspective of spatial effect,based on the spatial panel data of 30 provinces in China(not included Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2010 to 2019,the spatial Durbinmodel was used to investigate the spatial correlation and influencing factors of beef production.【Result】From 2010 to 2019,the spatial correlation characteristics of beef production in China were significant,and Moran’s I values were all greater than 0.200.From 2017 to 2019,the spatial correlation gradually increased,and the Moran’s I value increased from 0.229 to 0.256.From the regional perspective,beef production in Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning,In-ner Mongolia,Hebei,Shandong,Henan,Yunnan showed a high concentration trend.Considering the influencing fac-tors of beef production,feed richness and grassland area in theprovince had significant positive effects on beef production.The spatial spillover effects of beef slaughter rate and per capita GDP in neighboring provinces had a significant positive impact on local beef production,with per capita GDP far exceeding other variables,with spillover effect coefficient of 0.752.While the spatial spillover effects of non-agricultural employment opportunities and traffic accessibility had a signi ficant inhibitory effect on local beef production,with spillover effect coefficient of-0.953.Local and neighboring provin ces’price expectations and comparative advantages of animal husbandry jointly promoted local beef production.【Sugges-tion】In order to further improve the beef production in China,the government should grasp the changing law of beef cattle,and stimulate the beef production potential in the western China on the basis of stabilizing the beef production in north-eastern China and central plains;strengthen regional technical cooperation,give play to the role of radiation in high producing areas,and improve the national beef supply level;reasonably arrange the transportation route,improve the beef market mechanism,and realize the rational allocation of beef products among provinces;pay attention to environmental joint management and realize green and sustainable development of beef cattle production.