相互依赖、全球价值链嵌入与国际贸易利益

Interdependence,Global Value Chain Participation,and International Trade Gains

全球政治、经济、公共卫生、环境等不确定性会给高度依赖国外资源的各国带来被违约和供应中断风险。全球价值链嵌入是会带来扩大风险的极化效应,还是控制风险的平衡效应,已成为不确定因素急剧增加背景下亟待回答的问题。本文运用权力-依赖理论,将两国在全球价值链上的相互依赖分解为共同依赖和权力劣势两个维度,采用2018年版增加值贸易数据库的数据,对中美两国2005年以来的35个细分行业数据进行了实证分析,结果发现:第一,不管是中国还是美国,国际贸易利益均随共同依赖的增大而增长,并随权力劣势的增大而减少。第二,以权力网络扩展为特征的全球价值链嵌入,可作为调节变量降低因权力劣势而面临的被违约和供应中断风险,弱化权力劣势对国际贸易利益的负向作用。进一步检验调节作用机制发现,外企进入数量的增加和外企中外资持股比例的提升是全球价值链嵌入发挥风险控制作用的重要渠道。主效应和调节效应在全球金融危机发生期间及其前后、行业技术密集度和贸易方式上表现出异质性。全球金融危机显著扩大了权力劣势的负面影响,与此同时,全球价值链嵌入的调节效应也显著增强。全球价值链嵌入对中技术行业的调节作用强于高、低技术行业,但在高加工贸易比例行业中没有发挥显著作用。本文不仅扩展了对国际贸易利益影响因素的分析,也为我国在全球不确定性因素增加背景下如何高水平推进对外开放提供了政策参考。

Global uncertainties in political,economic,public health and environmental fields pose risks of contract broken and supply disruption to countries that are highly dependent on foreign resources.Whether the participation in global value chain can bring the polarization effect of increasing risks or the balance effect of controlling risks has become an urgent question to be answered against the background of rapidly increasing uncertainties.Based on the power-dependence theory,this paper decomposes interdependence of two countries on global value chain into two dimensions:mutual dependence and power disadvantage.Using the latest data from 2018 TiVA database,an empirical analysis on the data of 35 subsectors of China and US since 2005 concludes the following.Firstly,no matter for China or US,the international trade gains will rise with the increase of mutual dependence and decrease with the increase of power disadvantage.Secondly,participation in global value chain,characterized by extension of power network,can be used as a moderating variable to restrict the risk of facing contract broken and supply disruption because of power disadvantage,thus weakening the negative correlation between power disadvantage and international trade gains.Further examining the mechanism of moderating effect,the paper finds that the number and the foreign capital shareholding ratio of foreign enterprises are important channels for GVC participation to play a risk control role.The main effect and moderating effect are heterogeneous before,during and after the global financial crisis,in R&D intensity industry and trade sector.Global financial crisis significantly expands the negative influence of power disadvantage.Meanwhile,the moderating effect of GVC participation also significantly rises.GVC participation has greater effect on medium R&D intensity industries than high and low R&D intensity industries,while it has not played a significant role in industries with high ratio of processing trade.This paper not only extends the analysis of the factors that influence international trade gains,but also provides policy reference for how to open up to the outside world at a high level while facing increasing global uncertainties.