基于乘积季节模型的灯浮标漂移位置预测

Prediction the position of light buoy using multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model

灯浮标是引导船舶航行的导助航标志,对保障船舶的航行安全有着重要作用。为预测灯浮标的漂移位置,为船舶航行安全提供准确的灯浮标位置信息,针对灯浮标位置数据具有的时间序列的特征,采用乘积季节模型建立灯浮标偏移预测的数学模型,以湄洲湾1号灯浮标为例,利用建立的模型预测该灯浮标的偏移位置,并与实际位置数据进行对比,结果表明:乘积季节模型对灯浮标位置具有良好的预测效果,方位角和移位距离的平均绝对百分比误差分别为1.79%和7.37%。这为灯浮标漂移位置的预测提供了一种新的思路。

Light buoy is a navigation aid sign to guide the navigation of ships,which plays an important role in ensuring the navigation safety of vessels.In order to predict the light buoy′s offset position,and provide accurate buoy′s position for shipping,a mathematical model of light buoy′s offset prediction is established using multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model based to the seasonal time series characteristics of buoy′s position data.Taking the No.1 light buoy in Meizhou Bay as an example,the model is used to predict the offset position of the light buoy and compare with the actual position data.The results show that the multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model performance well,and the average absolute percentage errors of azimuth and shift distance are 1.79%and 7.37%respectively.This provides a new idea for the prediction of light buoy offset position.