中国企业对“一带一路”沿线国家投资的经济效应评估--“发展馅饼”还是“债务陷阱”

The Research on Economic Effect of China’s Enterprise investment in Countries Along the“Belt&Road”--“Debt Trap”or“Development Pie”

近年来,在"一带一路"倡议下,中国企业对沿线国家的投资显著增加,对投资的经济效应有"发展馅饼"和"债务陷阱"两种不同的观点。本文视共建"一带一路"倡议为准自然试验,结合"年份-国家/地区"2325个观察值的二维面板数据及"年份-国家/地区-行业"32550个观察值的三维面板数据,运用双重差分法(DID)和三重差分法(DDD),检验了共建"一带一路"的经济效应。实证结果表明,共建"一带一路"倡议促进了中国企业在沿线国家的投资额和投资次数,但并未增加"问题投资"(1)次数及其所发生的概率;共建"一带一路"效应的形成渠道主要是新进入企业的投资,而不是已在"一带一路"沿线国家投资过的中国企业的投资。最后,本文从加强"一带一路"话语体系建设、协同构建可持续的融资体系、构建债务风险预警机制等方面提出了政策建议。

“Belt&Road”(B&R)initiatives have been making significant progress.Meanwhile,China’s enterprises investment in countries along the“Belt&Road”increases,but the problem investment has also increased significantly.Therefore,the B&R may be a“debt trap”.This study regards the B&R initiatives as a quasi-natural experiment,combined with the two-dimensional panel data of 2325 observations of“year-country/region”and the 32550 observations of“year-country/region-industry”,the double difference method(DID)and the three difference method(DDD)were used to test whether the B&R initiatives are“debt trap”or“development pie”?The empirical test results show that,B&R initiatives has indeed promoted the investment and investment frequency of China’s enterprises in the countries along the B&R,but has not increased the number and the probability of the problem investment.The B&R initiatives has indeed promoted the investment and investment frequency of China*s enterprises in the energy sector in countries along the B&R,but has not increased the number of times and the probability of occurrence of the problem.Overall,the empirical test in this study supports shows the B&R initiatives,which is“developing pie”rather than“debt trap”.The argument of“debt trap”in foreign media is not supported by empirical evidence.B&R initiatives is mainly invested in new ventures,not the investment of Chinese enterprises that have invested in countries along the B&R.Finally,one belt,one road,discourse system,collaborative financing system and debt risk early warning mechanism are put forward.