含腐蚀缺陷管道剩余寿命预测方法评述

Review on the Methods for Predicting the Residual Lifespan of Pipelines with Corrosion Defects

腐蚀是造成长输管道失效和破裂的主要原因。分析管道腐蚀趋势、研究管道剩余寿命,制定科学、合理的管道检测、维修计划,是管道管理者的重要职责和基本要求。阐述了国内外在管道剩余寿命预测方面的数学模型及计算方法,结合实际工程案例应用,对各类管道剩余寿命预测模型方法的准确度和优缺点进行了评述。认为管道管理者应关注管道设计和运行阶段可靠度影响主导因素,并基于精度和检测数据选定预测方法。建议未来管道剩余寿命预测应从非腐蚀缺陷致因因素、腐蚀机理、检测数据和成果软件化等方面开展工作。

Corrosion is the principal cause of the failure and rupture regarding long-distance pipelines.It remains the key responsibility and basic requirement of pipeline managers to analyze the corrosion trend of pipelines,study the Residual Lifespan of pipelines and make a scientific and reasonable pipeline inspection and maintenance plan.The mathematical models and calculation methods of Residual lifespan prediction of pipelines at home and abroad are discussed herein.Moreover,the accuracy,advantages and disadvantages of prediction models with respect to various pipeline Residual lifespans are reviewed combined with practical engineering cases and applications.It is believed that pipeline managers should pay attention to the leading factors affecting reliability in pipeline design and operation stage and select prediction methods based on accuracy and detection data.Also,it is suggested that the Residual life prediction of pipeline should be carried out from the aspects of non-corrosive defect causative factors,corrosion mechanism,detection data as well as software results.