摘要
针对陕西省近年来极端气温事件发生频率增加这一现象,选用1960-2016年陕西省34个气象站年逐日气温资料,运用线性倾向法、M-K突变检验法、小波分析法研究陕西省极端气温事件的时空变化规律。结果表明:时间上对极端气温指数的全省均值和分区均值的突变分析可知,极端气温冷指数频率减少且数值呈现下降趋势,极端气温暖指数频率增加且数值呈现上升趋势;其中关中地区的指数突变的权重对于陕西省整体的贡献最大。陕西省各季度平均气温均以11 a、16 a、29 a为周期,29 a为主周期(冬季以9 a为主周期除外),极端气温暖指数中热夜日数、暖昼日数和暖夜日数均存在5 a或6 a的主周期,极端气温冷指数中冰冻日数、冷昼日数和冷夜日数均存在27 a的主周期,且在陕北、关中、陕南三个分区,极端气温冷暖频率的变化周期一致;空间上陕西省1960-2016年气温异常的空间型表现主要为总体一致性,极端气温暖指数普遍呈上升趋势且主要集中于关中与陕南地区;极端气温冷指数变化普遍呈下降趋势且主要集中于关中与陕北地区;陕西省各分区极端气温指数变化对全球气候变暖有较好的响应。
Aiming at the phenomenon of increasing frequency of extreme temperature events in Shaanxi Province in recent years,the daily temperature data of 34 meteorological stations in Shaanxi Province from 1960 to 2016 were selected,and the temporal and spatial variation law of extreme temperature events in Shaanxi Province was studied using linear trend analysis,M-K abrupt change test and wavelet analysis method.The results showed that according to the abrupt change analysis of the provincial and regional mean values of the extreme temperature indices,the frequencices of extreme cold temperature indices decreased and the values showed a downward trend,whereas the frequencies of extreme warm temperature indices increased and the values showed an upward trend.Among them,the weight of index abrupt change in Guanzhong region contributed the most to Shaanxi Province as a whole.The average temperature of each season in Shaanxi Province was at 11 a,16 a or 29 a cycle,with 29 a as the main cycle(except that winter had 9 a as the main cycle).The main cycle of the extreme warm temperature indices of TR20,TX90p and TN90p was 5 a or 6 a,whereas that of the extreme cold temperature indices of ID0,TX10p and TN10p was 27 a,and the frequencies of extreme warm and cold temperature changes were consistent in the three regions of northern Shaanxi,Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi.Spatially,the temperature anomalies in Shaanxi Province from 1960 to 2016 showed similar patterns.The extreme warm temperature indices were generally on the rise and mainly concentrated in Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi regions,whereas the extreme cold temperature indices generally showed a downward trend and mainly concentrated in Guanzhong and northern Shaanxi.The extreme temperature index changes in each region of Shaanxi Province responded spontaneously to global warming.
作者
姜雨彤
郭宁
马勇星
武蓉
张鑫
柏富碧
JIANG Yutong;GUO Ning;MA Yongxing;WU Rong;ZHANG Xin;BAI Fubi(College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;Huaying Water Authority,Huaying 638600,China)
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期124-131,共8页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
陕西省科技统筹创新计划项目(2016KTZDNY-01-01)
西北农林科技大学大学生创新训练项目(X201910712365)。
关键词
极端气温
时空变化
趋势分析
M-K突变检验
小波分析
陕西省
extreme temperature
spatio-temporal variation
trend analysis
M-K abrupt change test
wavelet analysis
Shaanxi Province