基于主成分回归模型的宁夏卫生总费用影响因素分析

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Total Health Expenditure in Ningxia Based on Principal Component Regression Model

目的通过科学分析宁夏卫生总费用的影响因素,为宁夏卫生行政部门合理控制卫生总费用,优化卫生资源配置,提高卫生服务公平可及性提供参考依据。方法梳理国内外关于卫生总费用影响因素的相关文献,筛选出年末常住人口数、65岁以上人口占常住人口比重等9个影响因素,利用主成分分析法提取主成分后,以标化的卫生总费用为因变量,主成分得分为自变量进行多元线性回归分析,探寻宁夏卫生总费用的影响因素。结果年末常住人口数、65岁以上人口占常住人口比重、人均地区生产总值、医疗卫生支出占财政支出比重、每千人拥有医疗机构床位数、每千人拥有卫生技术人员数与卫生总费用呈正相关。其中,每千人拥有卫生技术人员数对卫生总费用的相对影响程度最大(0.1400),每千人拥有医疗机构床位数次之(0.1375),人口自然增长率、居民消费价格指数、病床使用率与卫生总费用呈负相关,而病床使用率对卫生总费用的相对影响程度最大(-0.1341)。结论每千人拥有卫生技术人员数、每千人拥有医疗机构床位数等因素对宁夏卫生总费用具有正向影响;病床使用率、人口自然增长率等对宁夏卫生总费用具有负向影响。主成分回归分析能够较好地分析宁夏卫生费用的影响因素,具有一定的科学性。建议政府部门应合理、有效控制卫生总费用过快增长,关注多种因素对于卫生总费用的影响。

Objective To scientific analyze the influencing factors of total health expenditure in Ningxia,so as to provide reference for Ningxia health administrative departments to reasonably control total health expenditure,optimize health resource allocation and improve equitable access to health services.Methods By sorting out and summarizing relevant domestic and foreign literatures on influencing factors of total health expenditure,9 influencing factors were screened out,including the number of permanent residents at the end of the year and the proportion of population over 65 years old in permanent residents and etc.After the principal component analysis was used to extract the principal components,the standardized total health expenditure was taken as the dependent variable and the principal component score was taken as the independent variable to analyze the influencing factors of the total health expenditure in Ningxia.Results The number of permanent residents at the end of the year,the proportion of population over 65 years old in permanent residents,per capita GDP,the proportion of medical and health expenditure in fiscal expenditure,the number of beds in medical institutions per thousand people and the number of health technicians per thousand people were positively correlated with the total health expenditure.Among them,the number of health technicians per thousand people had the greatest relative impact on the total health cost(0.1400),followed by the number of medical institutions per thousand people(0.1375).Natural population growth rate,consumer price index,hospital bed utilization rate were negatively correlated with the total health cost,and the relative influence degree of bed utilization rate on the total health cost was the largest(-0.1341).Conclusion The number of health technicians per thousand people and the number of beds per thousand people with medical institutions have a positive impact on the total health expenditure in Ningxia.The bed utilization rate and natural population growth rate have negative effects on the total health expenditure in Ningxia.The principal component regression analysis can better analyze the influencing factors of health expenditure in Ningxia,which is scientific to some extent.The government should reasonably and effectively control the excessive growth of total health expenditure,and pay attention to the influence of various factors on total health expenditure.