“一带一路”沿线主要国家旅游竞争力与旅游服务出口协调度时空演变

The spatio-temporal evolution of degree of coordination between tourism competitiveness and tourism service exports of major countries along the "Belt and Road"

基于世界经济论坛《旅游竞争力报告》和联合国商品贸易数据库,采用熵值法、耦合协调度及相对发展度模型、GIS空间分析等方法,分析2007—2015年"一带一路"沿线49国旅游竞争力与旅游服务出口间的耦合协调发展关系及其时空演变。结果表明:(1)49国旅游竞争力与旅游服务出口整体处于协调状态,随时间变化不明显,多数长期处于中度协调状态;(2)从空间演变趋势看,耦合协调度区域分异和变化程度均较明显,东西方向上由"U"型逐渐向一字型演变,而南北方向上由"U"型逐步演变为"L"型格局,其中,中亚地区耦合协调度等级最低,其次是南亚地区,东亚、东南亚、中东欧地区耦合协调度相对较好;(3)各国旅游竞争力与旅游服务出口耦合协调类型分为两类——同步型和旅游服务出口滞后型;其中,以旅游服务出口滞后型数量最多,占比高达87.7%,而同步型国家主要分布在东亚和西亚地区,数量呈现缓慢增长趋势,至2015年该类型国家主要为中国、泰国、新加坡、卡塔尔、塞浦路斯、阿联酋等。

Based on the World Economic Forum Tourism Competitiveness Report and the United Nations Commodity Trade Database, using the entropy evaluation method, coupling coordination and relative development model, GIS analysis to study the coupling and coordinated development relationship between the tourism competitiveness and tourism service export of 49 countries along the "Belt and Road" and its space-time evolution. Results show that:(1) The tourism competitiveness of the 49 countries and export of tourism services are in a state of coordination as a whole, which does not change significantly. Most countries have been in a state of moderate coordination for a long time;(2) Obviously, the east-west direction has gradually evolved from a "U" shape to a horizontal line while the north-south direction has gradually evolved from a "U" shape to an "L" shape. Central Asia has the lowest level of coupling coordination, followed by South Asia. East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central and Eastern Europe are relatively well coordinated;(3) There are two types of coordination and coordination of tourism competitiveness and tourism service export, tourism service export lag has the largest number, accounting for 87. 7%,while synchronous countries are mainly distributed in East and West Asia, the number showed a slow increasing trend. China, Thailand, Singapore, Qatar, Cyprus, and the United Arab Emirates have achieved tourism competitiveness and tourism service export synchronization in 2015.