我国海岛旅游发展与生态环境耦合协调评价与影响因素研究

Research on the evaluation and influencing factors of the coupling and coordination of island tourism development and ecological environment in China

海岛旅游发展与生态环境协调是实现人海关系可持续发展的基础。选取中国12个海岛县(市、区)作为研究区,首先基于CSAED模型和PSR模型分别构建了旅游发展水平和生态环境质量评价指标体系,并借助BP神经网络模型测算其2018年旅游发展水平与生态环境质量,同时引入耦合协调模型对旅游发展与生态环境的协调程度进行定量评价,最后运用地理加权回归模型探究影响其协调发展的因素。结果表明:(1)我国12个海岛旅游发展与生态环境的协调程度整体上有待提升,多处于勉强协调状态。(2)我国12个海岛中75%的海岛旅游发展的速度还未超越生态环境的承载力,但其协调程度低,其不协调的发展状态将会导致旅游的发展超越生态环境的承载力。(3)旅游吸引力和生态脆弱压力对海岛旅游与生态环境的协调发展影响显著,旅游吸引力与协调程度呈负向影响,空间上旅游吸引力对协调程度的影响自南向北逐渐减弱;生态脆弱压力与耦合协调程度呈正向影响,空间上生态脆弱压力对协调程度的影响自南向北逐渐增强。

The coordination of island tourism development and ecological environment is the basis of the sustainable development of man-sea relationship. The 12 island counties(cities and districts) in China were selected as research areas. Firstly, based on the CSAED model and PSR model, the tourism development level and the ecological environment quality evaluation index system were constructed, and the BP neural network model was used to measure its tourism development level and ecological environment quality in 2018. At the same time, a coupled coordination model was introduced to coordinate tourism development and ecological environment quantitative evaluation of the degree. Finally, geographically weighted regression model was used to explore the factors affecting its coordination. The results show that: 1) The coordination of the tourism development and ecological environment of 12 islands in China needs to be improved on the whole, and most of them are in a state of reluctantly coordination. 2) Of the 12 islands in China, 75% of the islands ’tourism development has not yet exceeded the carrying capacity of the ecological environment, but its low degree of coordination and its uncoordinated development status will lead to the development of tourism beyond the carrying capacity of the ecological environment. 3) The attractiveness of tourism and the pressure of ecological fragility have a significant impact on the coordinated development of island tourism and the ecological environment. Tourism attractiveness and the degree of coupling coordination have a negative impact, in terms of space, the influence of tourism attractiveness on the degree of coordination gradually weakens from south to north. Ecological fragility pressure and the degree of coupling coordination have a positive effect, in terms of space, the impact of ecological fragility pressure on the degree of coordination gradually increased from south to north.