我国养老服务业与区域经济协同发展分析

Coordinated Development Between China’s Eldercare Service Industry and Regional Economy

基于我国30个省级区域(港澳台、西藏除外)2014—2018年面板数据,构建养老服务业-区域经济协同发展评价指标体系,利用耦合协调模型,测算我国养老服务业和区域经济的耦合协调度,并分析不同地区耦合协调度出现差异的原因。结果显示:我国养老服务业与区域经济的耦合协调度稳步上升,大部分省级行政区处于由失调向协调过渡阶段;耦合协调度区域差异较大,东部沿海地区及四川省为耦合协调度高值区,其两系统形成良性互动机制,中部地区、东北部地区相关扶持政策与发展机制尚不完善,但跨区养老带来了新的经济增长点,属于中值过渡区,西部地区服务设施缺口较大,区域经济发展与养老服务业发展方向不吻合,属于低值区。提出了推动两系统协同发展的差异化政策建议。

Based on the panel data of 30 provincial regions in Chinese mainland(except Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and Xizang)from 2014 to 2018,this paper constructed an evaluation index system of coordinated development between the eldercare service industry and the regional economy.The paper also used the coupling coordination degree model(CCDM)to measure the degree of coupling coordination between the two,and then analyzed reasons for those differences.Results show that the degree of coupling coordination between the senior care service industry and local economy has been rising steadily,and most provinces are in the transitional stage from imbalance to coordination.The degree of coordination has a big regional difference.The eastern coastal region and Sichuan province are regions with a high coupling coordination degree,and the two systems form a benign interaction mechanism.Relevant development mechanisms and support policies in the central and northeastern regions are yet to be improved;however,interregional senior care brings new economic growth points,making those two regions median transition zones.The western region lacks adequate service facilities,and the development direction of the care service industry there is not consistent with that of the local economy,making it a low-value area.Finally,this paper put forward differentiated policy proposals to promote the coordinated development of the two systems.