基于门限效应模型的经济发展水平对我国人均卫生费用的影响

The Impact of Economic Development Level on Per Capita Health Expenditure in China Based on Threshold Effect Model

目的:分析经济发展水平对我国人均卫生费用的影响机制。方法:基于我国2009—2018年31个省份面板数据,采用OLS及门限效应模型对影响我国人均卫生费用的因素进行实证分析。结果:医疗卫生支出占GDP比重门限值为4.75%;每万人医疗机构床位数门限值分别是29.48张和48.37张;城乡居民基本医疗保险参保率门限值为27.90%;CPI门限值为100.80%;财政自给率门限值为18.68%;人均居民消费水平门限值为45816.52元;城镇化率门限值为70.70%,跨过门限值后经济发展水平对人均卫生费用的影响系数发生变化。结论:经济发展水平对人均卫生费用的影响存在显著的门限效应,其过程受限于医疗卫生因素、社会因素等发展程度差异的影响。

Objective:To analyze the impact mechanism of economic development level on per capita health expenditure in China.Methods:Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2009 to 2018,the OLS and threshold effect model are used to conduct empirical analysis on the factors affecting per capita health expenditure.Results:The threshold of medical and health expenditure as a proportion of GDP is 4.75%.The thresholds for the number of beds in medical institutions per 10000 people are29.48 and 48.37 respectively.The threshold of the urban basic medical insurance participation rate is 27.90%.The threshold of CPI is 100.80%.The threshold of the fiscal self-sufficiency rate is 18.68%.The threshold of per capita consumption level is 45816.52 yuan.The threshold of the urbanization rate is 70.70%.After the threshold is exceeded,the impact coefficient of the level of economic development on per capita health expenditure changes.Conclusion:The impact of economic development level on per capita health expenditure has a significant threshold effect,and the process is limited by the impact of differences in development levels such as medical and health factors and social factors.