黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的时空演变与驱动因素

Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development in the Yellow River Basin

对2003~2017年黄河流域59个地级市面板数据进行样本计量,分析讨论黄河流域在生态保护和高质量发展上的时空演变特征、区域差距和提升路径。结果表明,黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展综合水平较低,并呈随时间变动的阶段性波动;综合水平高值区主要分布在流域内上、下游城市,具有"双核引领"的空间集聚特征,而中游城市始终处于"低水平稳定增长陷阱"阶段;区间差距是引致区域差距的主要原因;人均产出、对外开放、人力资本提高对综合水平提升起到驱动作用。因此,应加强区域联动,实现发展质量协同提升;坚持因地制宜,找准路径突出区域特色;突出联动效应,加快促进区域经济发展;优化动力系统,实现区域经济稳步增长。

Through the sample measurement of the panel data of 59 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2017,this paper analyzes and discusses the characteristics of temporal and spatial evolution,regional gaps and improvement paths of the Yellow River Basin in ecological protection and high-quality development.The results show that the comprehensive level of ecological protection and high-quality development is low,there is a large room for improvement,and it has obvious characteristics of periodic fluctuations over time.The high-value areas of the comprehensive level of ecological protection and high-quality development are mainly distributed in the Yellow River Basin.Upstream and downstream cities have the characteristic of"dual-core leadership"spatial agglomeration,while midstream cities are always in the"low-level stable growth trap"stage;the overall regional gap is large,and the inter-regional gap is the main reason for the overall regional gap;per capita output,opening to the outside world,human capital drive the improvement of the comprehensive level of ecological protection and high-quality development,and government intervention and environmental regulation drive the reduction of its comprehensive level.It is recommended to strengthen regional linkage to achieve a coordinated improvement in the quality of development,adhere to local conditions and identify a path to highlight regional characteristics,highlight linkage effects to accelerate regional economic development,optimize the power system to achieve steady growth in the regional economy.