高铁会影响东北地区产业结构演变吗?--东北振兴的另一种思路

Will High-speed Rail Affect the Evolution of Industrial Structure in Northeast China:Another Idea for the Revitalization of Northeast China

经济的竞争归根到底是产业的竞争,在全面推进高速铁路建设和积极推动产业结构升级的背景下,基于东北地区147个县和34个城市的数据,运用SARAR模型分析高铁对不同行政区域产业结构的影响。研究发现:高铁建设存在着显著的空间集聚性,同时高铁建设对城市产业结构产生一定的正向溢出效应;高铁促进了城市和县域产业结构高级化水平提升;高铁还会带来“鲍莫尔成本病”,即高铁不利于地区产业结构合理化调整;高铁在产业结构的虹吸效应中起到促进作用;高铁会通过抑制第一产业发展来促进第三产业发展进而影响地区产业结构;高铁对产业结构的影响主要是通过资本要素产生影响。同时采用了4种方法检验高铁对产业结构调整的影响,发现相关结论仍然是稳健的。最后根据研究结论从要素流动、政府干预和交通衔接等角度提出相关政策建议。

The economic competition is ultimately the competition of the industry.Under the background of comprehensively promoting the construction of high-speed railway and actively promoting the upgrading of industrial structure,based on the data of 147 counties and 34 cities in Northeast,the spatial SARAR model was used to analyze the impact of high-speed rail on the industrial structure of different economies.The results show as follows.First,there was a significant spatial agglomeration in the construction of high-speed railways.At the same time,the construction of high-speed railways has a certain positive spillover effect on the urban industrial structure.Second,the high-speed rail has promoted the upgrading of the city’s and county’s industrial structure.Third,high-speed rail will also bring"Baumol cost disease",that it inhibits the upgrading of the rationalization of the county’s industrial structure.Fourth,high-speed trains play a catalytic role in the siphon effect of the economy of industrial structure.Fifth,high-speed rail will promote the development of the tertiary industry by restraining the development of the primary industry,and then affect the regional industrial structure.Sixth,high-speed rails affect industrial output by affecting capital elements.Four methods have been used to test the impact of high-speed rail on industrial restructuring and found that the relevant conclusions are still robust.Finally,according to the conclusion,we put forward relevant policy recommendations from the perspective of factor mobility,government intervention and traffic convergence.