碳中和背景下中国能源中短期预测研究

Research on China’s Short and Mid-term Energy Forecasting under the Background of Carbon Neutrality

2020年9月,中国政府在第75届联合国大会上提出碳达峰和碳中和目标。“2060年实现碳中和”愿景将对中国能源结构转型产生深刻影响。运用CHINAGEM模型,针对当前政策情景(基准情景)和碳中和情景(政策情景)进行模拟分析,预测分析了2020—2040年中国能源发展状况,包括一次能源消费总量及其构成、终端能源消费量及其构成和发电量及其构成。基于分析结果,提出了实现碳中和总目标下,中短期内各项宏观指标的阶段性目标。

In September 2020,the Chinese government proposed carbon peak and carbon neutral targets at the 75th UN General Assembly.The vision of"Achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2060"will have a profound impact on the transformation of China’s energy structure.The CHINAGEM model is used to simulate and analyze the current policy scenario(baseline scenario)and carbon neutral scenario(policy scenario),and predict China’s energy development status from 2020 to 2040,including the total primary energy consumption,terminal energy consumption,and electricity generation and their composition.Based on the results of the analysis,this article puts forward the phased goals of achieving various macro indicators in the short and mid-term under the overall goal of China’s carbon neutrality.