碳减排约束下区域农业生产投入及其环境效应--基于价格内生局部均衡模型的模拟

Regional production inputs and their environmental effects under carbon emission reduction constraint: simulation based on price endogenous partial equilibrium model

“双碳”目标下农业碳减排将会对区域农业生产要素投入和环境效益带来多方面的影响。构建农业部门价格内生局部均衡模型,以江苏省和浙江省为例,模拟分析碳排放强度变化对主要农作物种植面积、能源消耗和碳排放等方面的综合影响。分析结果表明,在生产技术和外在需求等保持不变的情况下,碳排放强度约束增强,将促使区域内总种植面积和能源总消耗趋于下降,并进一步导致社会总福利和碳排放总量下降;但是碳排放强度约束增强将使得农业生产内部不同品种农作物的种植面积、能源消耗和碳排放出现不同方向的变化调整。相对于大豆、花生和油菜,小麦、水稻和玉米的种植面积、能源消耗和碳排放将出现较大程度的下降。

Agricultural carbon emission reduction under the“double carbon”target will have various impacts on the regional agricultural factor inputs and environmental benefits.A price endogenous partial equilibrium model for the agricultural sector has been constructed.Taking Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces for examples,the combined effects of changes in carbon emission intensity on the regional planting area,energy consumption and the carbon emission of major crops have been simulated and analyzed.The results show that when production technology and external demand remain unchanged,the enhanced constraint of carbon emission reduction will lead to the decrease of the total planting area and the energy consumption,and further lead to the decrease of the total social welfare and the total carbon emission.However,for different varieties of crops,the enhanced constraint of carbon emission reduction will lead to different adjustment in the planting area,energy consumption and carbon emission.Compared with soybean,peanut and rape,the planting area,energy consumption and carbon emission of wheat,rice and maize have declined to a greater extent.