大规模城际人员流动的负向效应与城市群的安全

Negative effects of massive intercity population movement on the security of urban agglomerations

依托移动互联网定位大数据,测度中国城际出行人员的流动特征,探讨大规模城际人员流动的"负向效应"。基于春运与平日两个时段百度迁徙数据,运用流动规模、广度两项流动性指标,使用局部空间自相关测度全国城际人员流动空间特征;借重大突发公共卫生事件,使用线性回归模型测算城际人员流动给不同类型城市、城市群带来负向效应的差异。结果发现:我国长三角、珠三角、京津冀三大城市群是流动性最强城市的高值聚集区,城市群、超大城市的超强流动性伴随着更大的负向效应风险。表现为:第一,以超大城市为中心的城市群受到城际人员流动负向效应冲击时,会产生更大的负向影响;第二,该类城市群会通过城际人员流动极大地扩散负向效应。提出城市群安全应首要保证流动性的安全,城市群安全应体现在城际流动网络的韧性上。新型城镇化进程中,推动城市群发展战略需要从国土空间安全的视角审视城市群流动性与城市群的安全。

This paper explored the characteristics of intercity human mobility and the ’negative effects’ of massive intercity population movement in China by using mobile internet positioning big data. Two travel periods of Baidu Migration data were selected involving Spring Festival and usual travel time. Based on two mobility indicators, i.e., movement scale and movement scope, the spatial characteristics of intercity population movement were measured by local spatial autocorrelation. With a vital public health emergency, linear regression models were used to measure the differences in the negative effects of the national intercity population movement on different cities and urban agglomerations in China. It is found that three major urban agglomerations, namely, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, are the most significant high-value clustering area of mobility in China. Urban agglomerations and megacities are accompanied by higher risks of negative effects for their super mobility. First, the megacity-centered urban agglomeration will have a more significant negative consequence when it is affected by the negative effects of intercity mobility. Second, the megacity-centered urban agglomeration will significantly spread the negative effects through intercity mobility. It is proposed that the security of urban agglomeration should firstly guarantee the security of mobility. The security of urban agglomerations should be reflected in the resilience of intercity mobility networks. In the process of new urbanization, the development strategy of urban agglomerations needs to focus on the mobility and security of urban agglomerations from the perspective of territory spatial security.