复杂项目外包中的正式规则与非正式关系——基于2014—2019年PPP项目的生存分析

Formal Rules and Informal Relationships in Complex Contracting:Survival Analysis Based on PPP Projects Between 2014 and 2019

我国大量PPP项目在进入执行阶段后不久便提前终止,这导致PPP项目的执行效率备受质疑。如何促使PPP项目实现良好的绩效成为当下面临的一个重要挑战。已有研究表明,正式规则和非正式关系对于PPP项目的顺利实施至关重要。论文基于财政部2014—2019年中标的PPP项目信息,采用生存分析的方法,分析了正式规则和非正式关系对PPP项目实施效率的影响。研究发现,在采购模式为竞争性招标(更强的市场竞争)、合同类型为成本加成合同(更灵活的合同机制)、社会资本方为国有企业(更强的政治关联)或者本地企业(更强的地理关联)的情况下,PPP项目提前终止的概率会显著降低。研究进一步发现,正式规则与非正式关系并不是独立发挥作用的,两者会相互影响。对于PPP项目的治理而言,恰当的正式规则和良好的非正式关系缺一不可。论文为改善PPP项目的治理体系提供了政策启示:宏观的制度因素在短期内无法改善,但是通过改进微观的正式规则与非正式关系,地方政府可以提高PPP项目的实施效率。

Many PPP projects in China are terminated shortly after the contracts are signed.This contributes to the implementation inefficiency of PPP noted by both practitioners and scholars.Previous researches suggest that both formal rules and informal relationships influence the implementation of PPP projects.Based on the data of PPP projects from 2014-2019,this paper analyzes the impact of formal rules and informal relationships on the implementation efficiency of PPP projects by using the survival analysis method.When the procurement method is competitive bidding(stronger market competition),the contract type is cost-plus(more flexible contract),and the vendor is a state-owned enterprise(stronger political ties)or local enterprise(stronger geographical ties),then the PPP project is less likely to be terminated early.In addition,the study found formal rules and informal relationships were not independent.Both play a role,influence each other,and are indispensable for the governance of PPP.For China’s PPP,even though institutional factors at the macro level in the short term are difficult to change,local governments can improve the formal rules and informal relationships at the micro level to increase the implementation efficiency of PPP projects.