金融科技发展、银行理财业务和我国金融稳定性

Fintech,shadow banking and financial stability in China

本文从理论上分析了金融科技发展和银行理财业务可能对金融稳定产生影响的主要渠道。在此基础上,本文利用2011—2019年的数据,分别构建了金融科技指数、银行理财发展指数和金融稳定性指数,并通过构建TVP-VAR模型进一步展开实证研究。研究发现:1)同期来看,金融科技和银行非保理财业务的发展都对金融稳定有正向促进作用。2)提前期来看,金融科技方面,在互联网金融加强监管后,中长期来看,其初期正响应值降幅较为明显,而在金融科技的持续发展和监管的逐步完善下,正响应值又开始逐步上升。银行非保本理财对金融稳定的影响效应在短期内基本保持平稳,而在中长期趋于收敛,然而,在其业务迅速扩张时期所蕴含的风险会导致这种正向影响降幅明显。3)特殊时点来看,金融科技和影子银行仍然是对金融稳定性具有正向影响的,金融科技的发展随着监管框架的不断完善使其正向影响持续时间延长,而影子银行业务的规范运行在短期内正向影响最大,但是持续时间相对较短。因此,未来随着我国金融监管体系的进一步完善和金融机构适应性的逐步提高,无论是金融科技还是银行理财业务的发展均能有效促进我国金融体系稳定运行。

This paper analyzes the main channels through which the development of Fintech and Shadow Banking services of commercial bank may influence financial stability.This paper uses the data from 2011 to 2019 to construct the Fintech Index,Banking Financial Services and Financial Stability Index,and further carries out empirical research by constructing the TVP-VAR model.The results show that:(1)In the same period,the development of Fintech and shadow banking has a positive effect on financial stability.(2)In terms of the lead time,in the medium and long term,after the supervision was strengthened,the initial positive response value declined significantly.However,with the continuous development of financial technology and the gradual improvement of supervision,the positive response value began to gradually rise again.The impact of shadow banking on financial stability is basically stable in the short term,and tends to converge in the medium and long term.However,the risks contained in the rapid expansion of their businesses will lead to a significant decline in this positive impact.(3)The special point of view,the financial technology and shadow banking is still has a positive influence on financial stability.As for the development of Fintech,the improvement of the regulatory framework to make it affects more longer.Moreover the improvement of the regulatory framework to shadow banking affects relatively short.Therefore,with the further improvement of China's financial regulatory system,the development of Fintech and banking financial services can effectively promote the stable operation of China's financial system.