当代中国人口婚姻嬗变及风险治理

The Evolution of Marriage and Risk Management of Populati on in Con temporary Chi na

当代中国婚姻态势呈现出一幅“矛盾”的景象。通过综合运用时期、时点和队列指标对中国人口婚姻态势进行分析,结果发现:结婚仍是国人的普遍选择,且婚姻观念转变和两性关系演化彰显着现代化的价值取向,但男性婚姻挤压现象突出、女性婚育年龄不断推迟、离婚风险向全人口和全家庭生命周期蔓延、婚姻权利滥用和家庭责任懈怠倾向增强亦是不争的事实。总体来看,婚姻制度的稳定性与脆弱性、婚配关系的平等性与挤压性、婚恋决策的主体性与自我性、婚姻文化的传统性与现代性的消长相互裹挟,构成了当代中国婚姻图景的基本特征,提示二分属性。在中国婚姻态势嬗变过程中,消极倾向的滋长及其负面影响值得关注,加强社会调控、优化婚配机制、巩固婚姻伦理道德和培育新型婚姻文化等治理措施需要得到具体落实。

The prospect of Chinese marriage system presents a"contradictory"picture.This paper aims to analyze the marital status of Chinese population by using the indicators of point,period and cohort.The results show that marriage is still the common choice of Chinese people,and the change of marriage concept and gender relations show the characteristics of modernization.At the same time,the phenomenon of male marriage squeeze is prominent,the marriage age keeps on postponing,the risk of divorce spreads to the entire population and the entire family life cycle,and the tendency of abusing marriage rights and slack family responsibilities is increasing.In summary,stability and vulnerability,gender equality and marriage squeeze,modernization and its dissimilation coexist at the same time,which constitutes the basic characteristics of Chinese marriage system in contemporary China,prompting for dichotomous attributes.In the evolution of China's marriage system,the growth of negative tendency and its negative effects are worthy of attention.Governance measures such as community care,optimization of the marriage mechanism,marriage ethics construction,cultivation of new marriage and childbirth culture need to be specifically implemented.