中国化肥施用强度的驱动因素分解与控制路径研究

Research on decomposition of driving factors of chemical fertilizer application intensity in China and control paths

20世纪90年代以来,中国(不含港、澳、台,下同)化肥施用量呈现持续增长的态势,直至2016年首次出现负增长,但化肥施用强度并没有实质性的下降。当前,中国的化肥施用强度仍明显高于国际安全标准。在分析1990—2018年中国化肥施用量与施用强度的基础上,利用因素分解模型,从高耗肥农作物和高强度区域2个层面剖析结构份额和效率份额同化肥施用强度变动之间的关系。结果表明:研究时段内,中国化肥施用量与化肥施用强度整体呈上升趋势,不同区域间农作物种植结构的差别是造成宏观层面不同区域化肥施用强度存在差异的重要原因之一。在高耗肥农作物层面,种植业结构偏向水果、蔬菜是造成高耗肥农作物上化肥施用强度增长的主导因素,结构驱动率高达66.74%。在高强度区域层面,结构份额和效率份额共同促使化肥施用强度增加,但2017年以来,效率份额的驱动作用明显提高。经济发展水平、农业劳动力转移、城镇化发展水平等因素对化肥施用强度具有显著(P<0.1)影响。未来,应进一步调整优化农作物种植结构,适当减少高耗肥农作物种植面积,同时不断推进节肥技术推广,注重提高化肥投入的技术效率。

Since the 1990s,the application of chemical fertilizers in China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,the same as below)has shown a trend of continuous growth.In 2016,there was a negative growth for the first time,but the application intensity of chemical fertilizers did not substantially decrease.Currently,the application intensity of chemical fertilizers in China is still higher than the international safety standard.Based on the analysis of the current status of chemical fertilizer application in China,a factor decomposition model was introduced to scientifically analyze the relationship within structure share,efficiency share and changes in chemical fertilizer application intensity from two aspects of high-fertilizer crops and high-intensity areas.The results showed that the application amount and intensity of chemical fertilizer in China were on the rise as a whole in 1990-2018.The difference in planting structure within regions was one of the important reasons for the regional differences in chemical fertilizer application intensity.At the aspects of high-fertilizer crops,the biased planting structure toward fruits and vegetables was the leading factor for the increase of chemical fertilizer application intensity,and the structure drive rate reached 66.74%.At the aspect of high-intensity areas,the structure share and efficiency share both contributed to the increase of chemical fertilizer application intensity.However,the efficiency drive effect has increased since 2017.Factors,such as the level of economic development,agricultural labor transfer,and the urbanization development level had significant(P<0.1)impact on the chemical fertilizer application intensity.Therefore,more efforts should be devoted to the adjustment and optimization of planting structure by reducing the sowing area of high-fertilizer crops,as well as the improvement in the utilization efficiency of chemical fertilizers via promotion of fertilizer-saving technologies,to reduce chemical fertilizer application intensity in the future.