经济政策不确定性对商业银行效率的影响——基于风险承担渠道的研究

The Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Efficiency of Commercial Banks——A Study Based on Risk-taking Channels

本文从理论上分析经济政策不确定性对商业银行效率的影响机制,并搜集数据进行验证,发现银行效率随着经济政策不确定性的提高而降低,在进行稳健性检验之后这一结论保持不变。本文使用风险承担作为调节变量,发现经济政策不确定性提高时,银行风险承担越高,效率损失越大,说明风险承担是经济不确定性影响银行效率的传导途径。高资本充足率的商业银行比低资本充足率银行的效率损失更小,而资本储备具有抵御风险的属性,从而再次验证了风险传导途径的存在性。异质性分析发现,经济政策不确定性提高时,上市银行、大规模银行和全国性商业银行的效率损失相对更小。本文的结论表明了降低经济政策不确定性的重要性,同时对监管部门、商业银行自身在经济政策不确定环境下提升银行效率具有一定的参考价值。

The ability of financial services to the real economy is closely related to the efficiency of financial entities.In the environment dominated by indirect financing in China,how to improve the efficiency of commercial banks has become an important issue.This paper theoretically analyzes the influence mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on the efficiency of commercial banks,and collects data to verify it.It is found that bank efficiency decreases with the increase of economic policy uncertainty.Af⁃ter the robustness test,this conclusion remains unchanged.Using risk-taking as the adjustment variable,it is found that when the economic policy uncertainty increases,the higher the bank risk-taking,the greater the efficiency loss,indicating that risk-taking is the transmission way that economic uncertainty affects the efficiency of banks.At the same time,it is found that the efficiency loss of commercial banks with high capital adequacy ratio is smaller than that of banks with low capital adequacy ratio,and capital reserves have the attribute of resisting risk,which once again verifies the existence of risk transmission pathway.Heterogeneity a⁃nalysis shows that when the uncertainty of economic policy increases,the efficiency loss of listed banks,large-scale banks and na⁃tional commercial banks is relatively smaller.The conclusion of this paper shows the importance of reducing the uncertainty of eco⁃nomic policy,and has a certain reference value for regulators and commercial banks to improve the efficiency of banks in the envi⁃ronment of economic policy uncertainty.