沿边地区贸易转型升级与经济增长——基于国家重点开发开放试验区的准自然实验

Trade Transformation and Economic Growth in Border Areas——Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment Based on National Pilot Zone for Development and Open-up

沿边地区是我国当前新发展格局的开发开放战略前沿。设立国家重点开发开放试验区试点旨在支持沿边地区贸易方式转变、深入推进兴边富民,但是其政策效果如何有待验证。本文基于2009~2019年中国69个沿边县域的面板数据,将国家重点开发开放试验区视作一次准自然实验,采用双重差分法(DID)分析和检验了政策试点对沿边县域经济的影响,并进一步探讨了政策效果的异质性。研究结果显示,试点政策的实施显著促进了沿边地区县域经济发展,使实验组比对照组提升约18%。进一步分析发现,重点开发开放区政策试点的建设,尚未对邻近地区产生正向溢出效应或虹吸效应;相较于第二批次设立的重点开发开放区,第一批政策试点对县域经济的带动作用相对更强;与非少数民族区县相比,试点政策对少数民族区县经济发展的促进作用相对较强。

The border areas are the frontier of China's current development and opening up strategy.The pilot project of set⁃ting up the national pilot zone for development and open-up aims to support the transformation of trade modes along the border areas and further promote the prosperity of the border people,but how its policy effect remains to be verified.Based on the panel data of 69 border counties in China from 2009 to 2019,this paper considers the national pilot zone for development and open-up as a quasi-natural experiment,uses the difference-in-difference method(DID)to analyze and test the impact of policy pilot projects on the county economy along the border,and further explores the heterogeneity of policy effects.The results show that the implementation of the pilot policy significantly promotes the development of county economy along the border areas,and increases the experimental group by about 18%compared with the control group.Further analysis reveals that the construction of pilot projects has not yet had a positive spillover effect or siphon effect on neighboring areas.Compared with the policy pilot projects set up in the second batch,the first batch of policy pilot projects has a relatively stronger driving effect on urban economy.Compared with non-minority areas and counties,the pilot policies play a relatively strong role in promoting economic development in minority areas and counties.