人工智能影响工资水平的机理研究

Research on the Mechanism of Artificial Intelligence on Wage

本文将人工智能分为劳动型和资本型,通过构建多要素二级CES生产函数,发现:劳动型人工智能和劳动力的替代弹性、广义劳动和广义资本的替代弹性、企业人力资本结构以及发展阶段,是人工智能影响工资水平的中间机理。通过构建Hauthakker模型,基于中美劳动力市场数据,测算出:在中美当前工资水平下,当两国劳动力和人工智能之间的替代弹性分别大于1.8649和1.900时,人工智能的应用会造成“技术替人”现象;当此替代弹性在中国和美国分别超过2.35和2.73时,无论两国的劳动力工资水平如何,“技术替人”都不可避免。

By constructing a multi-factor secondary CES production function and classifying artificial intelligence into AI-la⁃bor and AI-capital,this paper finds that the impact of artificial intelligence on wage is inseparable from the elasticity of substitution between factors,and the mechanism of elasticity on substitution is affected by the stage and type of industrial development.Based on the data released by Statistical Yearbook of China and the US Department of Labor,it concludes that the application of artificial intelligence will reduce the wage once the substitution elasticity is greater than 1􀆰8649 in China,and greater than 1􀆰900 in the US,under the current labor cost of the two countries.Technical substitutes are inevitable when it exceeds 2􀆰35 and 2􀆰73 respectively in China and the US,regardless of the labor price of the two countries.