一类空气温度的随机微分方程模型

A Stochastic Differential Equation Model of Air Temperature

通过分析全球平均温度的变化特点,建立全球平均温度的随机阻滞增长微分方程模型,并对其进行性态分析;利用矩估计法和最小二乘法等进行相关参数估计,并对模型进行数值模拟计算和分析。估计出环境容纳值为16.6224℃,时间为375年,得出“如果人类不加控制,全球平均温度将不断增加的变化趋势”等结论。

By analyzing the characteristics of the global average temperature,this paper establishes the stochastic differential equation model of the global average temperature,and analyzes its behavior.It concludes that if human beings do not control it,the global average temperature will continue to increase.The moment estimation method and the least square method are used to estimate the relevant parameters,and the model is numerically simulated and analyzed.