银川市日供水量与气温的相关性分析及预测模型的建立

Correlation Analysis of Daily Water Supply and Temperature in Yinchuan and Establishment of Prediction Model

为了揭示银川市气温对用水量的影响,以银川市2012—2020年的供水数据和气温资料为研究对象,分析全年用水特征,将供水划分为春夏秋冬四个阶段,利用数学统计方法分析四个阶段的日供水量与日最低气温、平均气温、最高气温的相关关系,并建立城市供水量预测模型。结果表明:春季,日供水量与日平均气温的相关系数达到0.9143;夏季,日供水量与日最高气温的相关系数达到0.8269;秋季,供水量与气温的相关性不明显;冬季,日供水量与日平均气温的相关系数为0.7126;对气候用水量建立模型进行预测,平均气温每上升1℃,供水量上涨0.5万m^(3);根据定额法得出,现状居民生活用水定额范围为128~145 L/(人·d)。

The water supply data and temperature data of Yinchuan from 2012 to 2020 are used to analyse the annual water consumption characteristics in order to reveal the influence of temperature on water consumption in Yinchuan.Each year is divided into four stages:spring,summer,autumn and winter,and the correlation between the daily water supply and the daily minimum temperature,daily mean temperature and daily maximum temperature respectively in each stage is analyzed by mathematical statistics method and then the prediction model of urban water supply is established.The results show that the correlation coefficient between daily water supply and daily mean temperature reaches 0.9143 in spring;In summer,the correlation coefficient between daily water supply and daily maximum temperature reaches 0.8269;In autumn,the correlation between water supply and temperature is not obvious;In winter,the correlation coefficient between daily water supply and daily mean temperature is 0.7126;The climate water consumption is predicted by establishment of a model,the water supply increases by 5000 m^(3) as daily mean temperature goes up 1%.According to the rating method,the current domestic water quota range of residents is 128—145 L/d.