计及主/被动需求响应与条件风险价值的微网经济调度

Economic Dispatch of Microgrid Considering Active/Passive Demand Response and Conditional Value at Risk

针对综合能源微网源荷不确定性给决策调度带来高风险性的问题,在考虑柔性负荷需求响应对平抑负荷波动性及提高系统能源利用效率作用的基础上,构建了计及主/被动需求响应与条件风险价值的微网2阶段经济调度模型。首先研究了用户主被动需求响应对负荷曲线的影响。在此基础上,为评估系统源荷不确定性带来的潜在调度风险,引入条件风险价值理论(conditional value at risk,CVaR),以微网系统的潜在风险成本以及考虑环保因素的综合运行成本最低为优化目标,建立了计及CVaR的微网经济调度模型。最后,为克服传统NSGAII算法易陷入局部最优解和求解效率低的不足,引入beta交叉算子和自适应交叉变异概率对原始NSGAII算法进行改进。以某地区微网系统作为仿真算例,并设置了5种对比场景,研究结果表明,主被动需求响应能在有效系统的运行经济性的同时,降低系统的潜在调度风险。CVaR理论能通过置信度的设置反映决策者对风险的厌恶态度,为系统调度决策提供参考。

To solve the problem that the uncertainty of source charge in integrated energy micro grid brings high risk to decision dispatching, a two-stage economic dispatch model of micro grid based on considering the effects of flexible load demand response on stabilizing load fluctuation and improving energy utilization efficiency of the system is constructed,which takes into account the active/passive demand response and conditional risk value. Firstly, the effect of passive demand response on load curve is studied. On this basis, in order to evaluate the potential scheduling risk caused by the uncertainty of the source charge of the system, the conditional value at risk(CVaR) theory is introduced, and the optimal objective is to take the potential risk cost of the microgrid system and the comprehensive operation cost with environmental factors as the lowest, so as to establish the micro-grid economic scheduling model taking into account CVaR.Finally, in order to overcome the shortcomings of traditional NSGAII algorithm, which is easy to fall into local optimal solution and low solving efficiency, beta crossover operator and self-adaptive crossover probability are introduced to improve the original NSGAII algorithm. A microgrid system in a certain region is taken as a simulation example and five comparison scenarios are set so as to perform the simulation investigation, and the research results show that active and passive demand response can reduce the potential scheduling risk of the system in the process of the economical and effective system operation. The CVaR theory can reflect decision-makers’ attitude of risk aversion through the setting of confidence, which can provide a reference for system scheduling decision.