不确定性理论:现代宏观经济分析的基石

Uncertainty Theory:Cornerstone of Modern Macroeconomic Analysis

自李嘉图之后,经济学理论的构建遇到了两难的选择:经济分析只有排除不确定性和变动才能进行,而经济政策只有仔细考虑到不确定性和变动才有可能实行。凯恩斯的一个重要贡献就是将不确定性牢固地置于经济各阶段的中心,不确定的预期在消费、投资及货币需求三大心理规律中起着决定性作用。在当今宏观经济学的演进过程中,对不确定性问题的态度和处理方式已成为划分诸多宏观分支理论的一把标尺,而在经济学层面对不确定性问题的深化,也是未来宏观经济学变革的一个重要方向。

Since David Ricardo,the construction of economic theory has encountered a dilemma:economic analysis can be carried on only when uncertainty and changes are removed,while economic policies can just be carried out when uncertainty and changes are taken into carful consideration.One of the important contributions of Keynes is to put uncertainty in the center of different economic stages. The expectation of uncertainty plays a very critical role in three main mental laws of consumption,investment and currency demand. With the evolution of macroeconomics,the attitude and solution to uncertainty have become the dividing line of many branches of macroeconomic theory. And the further development of uncertainty in economics has also become an important direction of macroeconomics change in the futrue.