新冠疫情对制造业冲击的干预影响分析

Impact of the Intervention of the new Crown Epidemic on the Manufacturing Industry

采购经理人指数(PMI)作为经济监测的先行指标,能够反映经济的变化趋势,文章通过对制造业PMI的时间序列建立干预分析模型定量考察新冠疫情对制造业的影响。从分析结果来看,新冠疫情对制造业的负效应很快消除,并对制造业的发展产生了持续的正影响,这一结果说明我国制造业对抗新冠疫情这样的外部冲击的能力较强。

The Purchasing Managers Index(PMI),as a leading indicator of economic testing,can reflect the trend of economic changes.This article uses the time series of manufacturing PMI to establish an intervention analysis model to quantitatively investigate the impact of the new crown epidemic on the manufacturing industry.From the analysis results,the negative effect of the new crown epidemic on the manufacturing industry is quickly eliminated,and it has a continuous positive impact on the development of the manufacturing industry.This result shows that my country's manufacturing industry has a strong ability to resist external shocks such as the new crown epidemic.