长江上游流域面雨量与主要水电站发电能力关系分析

Analysis of Relationship Between Areal Rainfall and Power Generation Capacity of Major Hydropower Stations in the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River

鉴于水电是关系国家安全稳定和国计民生的重要行业,以水电站的发电量预测为目的,通过分析2013~2017年的旬面雨量、流量相关性,确定两者关系,再根据历史资料拟合流量与电量,得到电站电量的推求关系。结果表明,三峡电站还原后逐旬流量与宜昌以上流域逐旬平均面雨量相关系数大于其与宜宾以上流域、岷沱江、嘉陵江的面雨量相关系数,溪洛渡电站还原后逐旬流量与宜宾以上流域逐旬平均面雨量的相关系数较与金沙江上游、石鼓-攀枝花、雅砻江的面雨量的相关系数高。采用控制子流域加权面雨量和控制子流域面雨量两种方式分别进行电站控制流域面雨量与三峡、溪洛渡还原后的流量进行回归拟合,发现采用控制子流域面雨量与电站还原后的流量拟合效果更好,当电站入库流量分别稳定超过22000、6000 m^(3)/s时,电站的最大发电能力均为满发状态。

The continuous development and utilization of hydropower has become a global consensus and the generating capacity of hydropower stations is an important issue related to national security.The purpose of this study is to forecast the electric energy production of hydropower stations.At first,the ten-days flow is deduced through the fitting curve of the surface precipitation and flow in 2013-2017.Then,the electric energy production is derived by the fitting function according to the historical flow and generating power quantity.The results show that in the Three Gorges power station,the correlation coefficients between the ten-days reduced flow and ten-days area rainfall of the upper reaches of the Yichang Basin is greater than that of basins of Jinshajiang River,Mintuojiang River and Jialingjiang River.In Xiluodu power station,the correlation coefficients between the ten-days reduced flow and ten-days area rainfall of the upper Yibin station is greater than that of basins of the upper Jinshajiang River,Shigu-Panzhihua River,and Yalongjiang River.The two ways(control basin weighted area rainfall and control basin area rainfall)are used to determine the regression fitting curve of the Three Gorges and Xiluodu power station,and the results show that it is better to use control basin area rainfall to fit flow.The fitting results between the power generation and the measured inflow of the Three Gorges and Xiluodu power station indicate that the maximum generating capacity of these two power stations is full when the flow exceeds 22000 m^(3)/s and 6000 m^(3)/s respectively.