基于准自然实验的中美贸易政策不确定性与企业技术创新

Sino-US trade policy uncertainty and enterprise technological innovation based on quasi-natural experiment

运用倍差法对贸易政策不确定性与企业技术创新行为进行分析,结果表明:贸易政策不确定性上升显著提升企业技术创新绩效;利润总额、现金流的增加和固定资产折旧的加速会正向影响企业技术创新行为;贸易政策不确定性上升可以通过提高企业新产品研发能力以及出口企业盈利能力来影响企业技术创新行为;融资约束并不是贸易政策不确定性影响企业技术创新行为的渠道。

The uncertainty of Sino-US trade policy and enterprise technological innovation behavior are analyzed by using the double difference method.The results show that:the increase of trade policy uncertainty significantly improves the performance of enterprise technological innovation;the increase of total profit,cash flow and the acceleration of depreciation of fixed assets will positively affect the technological innovation behavior of enterprises;the rising uncertainty of trade policy can affect the technological innovation behavior of enterprises by improving the R&D ability of new products and the profitability of export enterprises;financing constraints are not the channel for trade policy uncertainty to affect technological innovation behavior of enterprises.