经济开放、人口流动与区域经济非均衡发展——基于辽宁省经济增长率波动的分析

Economic opening,population flow and unbalanced development of regional economy:analysis based on fluctuation of economic growth rate in Liaoning Province

辽宁省经济增速下滑引发了广泛关注,与此同时,辽宁人口流出和人口负增长局面也在加剧。为探究二者联系,聚焦辽宁省区域内人口流动与经济开放问题,比较各地级市人口流动与对外开放情况,从理论和实证方面分析辽宁省14个地级市人口流动对经济增长的影响及作用机制。研究发现:经济开放地区的人口集聚效应和适当的人口政策能够吸引人口流入;人口集聚对经济增长有正向促进作用;人口流出具有负的经济效应。据此提出政策建议:进一步调整人口政策,引导人口合理有序流动;放开大城市人口落户限制,优化人才引进政策,促进人口集聚;优化营商环境,进一步扩大对外开放;顺应人口发展趋势,调整中长期经济发展战略。

The decline of economic growth in Liaoning Province has aroused widespread concern.At the same time,Liaoning’s population outflow and negative population growth are also accelerating.In order to explore the relationship between the two,focusing on the regional population flow and economic opening-up in Liaoning Province,the influence and mechanism of population flow on economic growth in the 14 prefecture level cities of Liaoning Province are analyzed from theoretical and empirical aspects by comparing the situation of population flow and opening-up in various cities.The results show that:Population agglomeration effect and appropriate population policy can attract population inflow in economic open areas.Population agglomeration has a positive effect on economic growth.Population outflow has negative economic effect.Based on that,some policy suggestions are put forward accordingly,i.e.,to further adjust population policies and guide the rational and orderly flow of population;to liberalize the population restrictions of larger cities,optimize the talent introduction policy,and promote population agglomeration;to enhance the business environment further and to open wider to the outside world;and to conform to the trend of population development and adjust the medium and long term economic development strategy.