基于专业权威成长动态的网络意见领袖预测研究

Prediction of E-Opinion Leaders Based on the Growth Characteristics of Professional Authority

[目的/意义]基于意见领袖专业权威成长动态性,探讨意见领袖预测指标,在网络舆情爆发初期快速、准确预测意见领袖,合理设置正面舆论议程、引导舆论。[方法/过程]选择年度影响力较大的10个网络舆情事件的用户信息、历史文本数据,通过话题提取等方法构建用户活跃度、历史影响力、专业权威等共3类15个指标,构建预测模型,分析不同指标体系的预测精度差异、指标影响力差异,并提取预测精度最高的指标集合。[结果/结论]基于临近事件期的历史文本提取的话题相似度指标、转评赞数据构建的历史影响力指标,较为细致地刻画了意见领袖专业权威成长轨迹,对特定话题的意见领袖预测具有重要意义。

[Purpose/Significance]Based on the dynamic growth of E-opinion leaders’ professional authority, this paper discusses the prediction indicators of opinion leaders, which may provide suggestions for government department to quickly and accurately predict E-opinion leaders, reasonably set positive public opinion agenda and guide public opinion in the early stage of the outbreak of Internet public opinion. [Method/Process] We collect the user’s information and historical text data based on 10 internet public opinion events, and construct 15 predict indicators by topic extraction, including user’s activity, historical influence and professional authority. Then we construct prediction models to analyze the difference of prediction accuracy and influence of these 15 indicators. And we extract the index set which has the lowest accuracy error. [Result/Conclusion] The topic similarity indicators extracted from the historical text, and the historical influence indicators calculated by the number of forwarded, agreed, commented, describe the growth track of e-opinion leaders’ professional authority in detail, which have great significance to the prediction of e-opinion leaders on specific topics.