时间压力对风险决策的影响:基于实验经济学的研究

Don’t Rush me:Time Pressure and Risk Preference Inconsistency

近年来许多研究提供了确凿的证据证明了时间压力对于个体做出面临风险的决策具有显著的影响。然而,在大多数研究中,时间压力的来源为计算机给出的时间压力,而日常生活中,时间压力常常来源于他人,因此本研究尝试探究来源于真人而不是不可抗力的时间压力的影响。我们使用组间对照的实验方法探究压力来源对结论一致性的影响。应用Kocher等学者的研究中使用的类似CET彩票决策问题,我们发现外生的时间压力在正负前景下都增加了风险厌恶,但当时间压力来源于真人时,相比于非交互情境,负前景下行为人更加厌恶风险,但正前景中行为人更加寻求风险。我们使用后悔理论与自利偏差建立模型解释并讨论了相关的结论。

Recent literatures have documented various experimental evidence of significant effect of time pressure on individuals’decision making under risk.However,in most of those studies,the effect of time pressure is measured where the time pressures are randomly assigned by computers.We conduct the current study to identify the magnitude of the impact of time pressure when it is imposed by a real person rather than by nature.We use a between-subject design to study whether the difference in the source of pressure matters.Applying a similar binary choice lottery(CET)design as Kocher,we find that time pressure increases risk aversion for both the pure gain prospect and the pure loss prospect when it is exogenously trigged.And when the pressure is imposed by a real person for potential personal benefit,it would lead to consistent risk seeking in gains and consistent risk aversion in losses.The results provide new evidence for decision making under time pressure.We integrate the psychological tendency of self-serving bias with the model in regret theory to shed lights on the inconsistency.