基于回归模型和GM(1,1)模型的旅游发展问题研究

Tourism development issues based on Regression Model and GM(1,1)model

以平顶山市为研究对象,选取2005-2019年相关旅游数据,建立回归模型,进行模型检验修正和预测,定量分析影响平顶山市旅游收入最主要因素;运用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型进行未来5 a旅游收入的数据模拟,并进行了回归模型和GM(1,1)模型的对比。基于此提出发展旅游经济的政策建议。

Taking Pingdingshan City as the research object,this paper selects the relevant tourism data from 2005 to 2019,establishes a regression model,tests,modifies and forecasts the model,and quantitatively analyzes the most important factors affecting the tourism income of Pingdingshan City;This paper uses the Grey Prediction GM(1,1)model to simulate the data of tourism revenue in the next five years,and makes a comparison between the regression model and GM(1,1)model.Based on this,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of tourism economy.