消费结构升级与经济高质量发展——兼论有效市场与有为政府的门槛特征

Consumption Structure Upgrading and High-quality Economic Development--The Threshold Characteristics of Effective Market and Promising Government

基于2011-2018年我国30个省份的面板数据,运用面板空间计量模型实证检验消费结构升级对经济高质量发展的影响,采用面板门槛模型考察有效市场与有为政府的调节作用。研究结果表明:消费结构升级对经济高质量发展具有稳健的正向影响,但不具有空间外溢效应。消费结构升级对东、西部地区的经济高质量发展的影响显著为正,而对中部地区的经济高质量发展的影响不显著。消费结构升级对经济高质量发展的影响存在基于有效市场和有为政府的门槛特征,市场化指数或政府效率越高,消费结构升级对经济高质量发展的促进作用越强。基于研究结论,进一步从引导产品与服务跨区域流动、提高收入与稳定物价、完善有效市场与建立“高效有为”政府等方面提出建议。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2018,this paper uses panel spatial econometric model to empirically test the impact of consumption structure upgrading on high-quality economic development,and uses the panel threshold model to examine the regulatory role of effective market and promising government.The results show that:Consumption structure upgrading has a robust positive impact on high-quality economic development,but does not have spatial spillover effects.Consumption structure upgrading has a significant positive impact on the high-quality economic development of the eastern and western regions,while the impact on the high-quality economic development of the central region is not significant.The impact of consumption structure upgrading on economic high-quality development has threshold characteristics based on effective market and promising government.The higher marketization index or government efficiency,the stronger consumption structure upgrading will promote high-quality economic development.Based on the research conclusions,further suggestions are made in terms of guiding the cross-regional flow of products and services,raising income and stabilizing prices,improving the effective market and establishing"efficient and promising"governments.