降低养老保险政策缴费率对基金可持续性影响的研究

How Decrease in Pension Insurance Contribution Rate Affecting Pension Fund Sustainability

人口老龄化程度的加深对我国养老保险事业发展造成了巨大挑战。在此背景下,本文通过构建精算模型,模拟了不同政策组合下,降低养老保险政策缴费率对基金可持续性的影响,得到如下结论:(1)当不实行政策干预时,基金在2027年首次出现累计赤字,此后赤字规模逐年扩大;(2)在短期内(2021-2025),养老保险政策缴费率下调3个百分点时,能够使得基金可持续性提高,而在中期(2021-2050),反而会增大基金支付压力;(3)当实现征收体制改革且缴费率下调3个百分点时,基金累计赤字时点向后推迟了8年,基金可持续性得到一定改善;在此基础上进一步实行延迟退休年龄政策之后,基金在中期内并未出现累计赤字,且累计结余大幅度提升;而当政府对基金进行财政补贴后,基金运行状况得到显著改善。

The continuous population aging has posed great challenges to the development of China's pension insurance industry.Under this background,this article sets up actuarial model to study how the reduction in pension insurance contribution affect the sustainability of pension fund by simulating different policy portfolios.The following have been concluded:(1)When no policy intervention is implemented,the fund will experience a cumulative deficit for the first time in 2027,and the deficit will then expand year by year;(2)when the pension insurance policy contribution rate is reduced by 3 percentage in the short term(2021-2025),it can increase the sustainability in short term while increasing the pressure in the mid-term(2021-2050);(3)When the collection system reform is realized and the contribution rate is reduced by 3 percentage,the fund's cumulative deficit will be delayed by 8 years.Sustainability will be improved to a certain extent.After further implementing the policy of suspending the retirement age on this basis,the fund will not have a cumulative deficit in the medium term,and the cumulative balance increased significantly;and when the government provided financial subsidies to the fund,the situation would be improved significantly.