省域碳减排—经济增长—环境保护协调发展的时空分异及驱动机制

The Spatial-Temporal Differentiation and Driving Mechanism of Coordinated Development of Provincial Carbon Emission Reduction,Economic Growth and Environmental Protection

基于耦合协调度模型和因子分析模型,以我国30个省市2001—2017年数据为例,构建省域碳减排—经济增长—环境保护耦合协调综合评价指标体系,分析耦合协调度的时空分异和驱动机制。结果表明:(1)从时间角度看,2006—2017年省域三系统耦合协调水平在逐步提升,但仍处于较低的状态,从空间角度看,总体呈"东南部高,中西部低"的态势且集聚性较差;(2)经济水平、产业结构、环境倒逼与能源消费结构是省域三系统耦合协调发展的主要驱动力,2001—2017年间其驱动力在稳步增强。

According to the coupling coordination degree model and factor analysis model, this study, taking the data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2001 to 2017 as the example, constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of the coupling coordination for the carbon emission reduction, economic growth and environmental protection. It further analyzes the spatial-temporal differentiation and driving mechanism of the coupling coordination degree. The results show that:(1) From the perspective of time, the coupling coordination level of the three systems in the provincial regions was gradually improving from 2006 to 2017, but was still in a low state. From the perspective of space, it generally shows a trend that is"high in the southeast, and low in the central and western regions",along with poor clustering.(2) The economic level, industrial structure, environmental reversal and energy consumption structure are the main driving forces for the coupling and coordinated development of the three provincial systems. And their driving forces were steadily strengthening from 2001 to 2017.