地方人大预算监督法制化的效应研究:基于省级预算审查监督条例立法的证据

Research on the Impact of Budget Supervision Legalization of Local People’s Congress:Evidence from Provincial Budget Supervision Regulation Legalization

如何通过完善人大预算监督的法制化建设使地方财政支出更加注重民生保障和规范有序是新时期推进公共财政支出监督机制建设的核心问题。本文以我国1999-2017年间各地区省级预算审查监督条例立法作为准自然实验,使用双重差分法检验地方人大预算监督立法对地方政府财政支出结构和规范性的影响。研究发现:(1)省级预算监督条例立法能够显著改善财政预算支出结构,提升民生性财政支出比重而降低经济建设支出比重;(2)省级预算监督条例立法显著提高了财政支出的规范性,降低财政支出预决算偏离度和减少财政资金违规金额;(3)人大预算监督条例立法的效应在新《预算法》施行以后进一步增强,在财政分权程度更高的地区作用更大,而在经济主管官员晋升激励更强的地区显著削弱。本文的研究表明推动地方人大预算监督法制化建设是增进民生福祉和提高国家治理能力的重要制度保障。

How to improve the legal institutions of the budgetary supervision of the local People’s Congress to make local financial expenditure pay more attention to people’s livelihood security and standardization is the core issue of the construction of public financial expenditure supervision mechanism in the new era.Using the provincial budgetary supervision regulation legislation from 1999 to 2017 as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper uses the Difference-in-Difference strategy to examine how local budgetary supervision legislation affects the structure and implementation of local government budget.First,we find that provincial budgetary supervision regulation legislation can significantly improve the structure of local fiscal expenditure by increasing the proportion of public expenditure on people’s livelihood and reducing the proportion of expenditure on economic construction projects.Second,the legislation on budget supervision regulation of the local People’s Congress has significantly improved the budget implementation by reducing budget deviation and the amount of misused public found.Third,heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of budgetary supervision regulation legislation is further enhanced after the implementation of the new Budget Law,more significant in areas with higher degree of fiscal decentralization,but weaker in areas governed by officials with stronger political incentives.The above results suggest that promoting the legalization of budget supervision of the local People’s Congress is an important institutional guarantee for improving people’s wellbeing and state’s governance ability.