向海保护区青头潜鸭繁殖栖息地的适宜性

Habitat Suitability for Baer’s Pochard(Aythyabaeri)in Xianghai Reserve

依据吉林向海国家级自然保护区青头潜鸭的实际分布点数据,选择7种环境特征变量数据,运用Maxent模型对向海保护区青头潜鸭的潜在繁殖栖息地进行预测,结合向海保护区的功能区划设置对青头潜鸭栖息地适宜性进行了分析。结果表明:训练数据模型预测结果通过ROC曲线(受试者操作特定曲线)与横坐标轴围成的面积(AUC值)为0.927,测试数据AUC值为0.998,模型预测结果达到优秀水平。向海保护区青头潜鸭最适宜的生境面积为5.61 hm^(2)(占保护区总面积0.01%),总适宜生境面积为105467 hm^(2)(占保护区面积的13.70%),适宜分布区分散在东南部,且大部分处于保护区的实验区。刀切法检验测定得到影响模型预测的主导环境特征变量是坡度和海拔,两者贡献率分别为56.3461%和32.6982%,累计贡献率达89.0443%。环境特征变量响应曲线显示除土壤湿度指数外,坡度、坡向、海拔、土壤亮度指数、绿色植被指数和道路距离这6个因子均与青头潜鸭栖息地适宜性呈负相关关系。建议尽量迁移核心区和实验区之间的人为活动区,以扩大核心区和实验区内青头潜鸭的实际有效面积,进而有效增加青头潜鸭的适宜栖息区域。

With the actual distribution point data of the Baer’s Pochard in the Jilin Xianghai National Nature Reserve,we selected seven kinds of environmental characteristic variable data and utilized the Maxent model to predict the potential breeding habitat of Pochard in Xianghai reserve,and combining with the functional zoning of Xianghai reserve,we analyzedthe suitability of the Baer’s Pochard habitat.The AUC value of the training data is 0.927,the AUC value of the test data is 0.998,and the model prediction results have reached an excellent level.In the Xianghai reserve,the most suitable habitat area for the Baer’s Pochard is 5.61 hm 2(accounting for 0.01%of the total protected area),the total suitable habitat area is 105467 hm 2(accounting for 13.70%of the protected area),the suitable distribution areas of the Baer’s Pochard are scattered in the southeast,and most of them are in the experimental zone of the reserve.The Jackknife test showed that the dominant environmental characteristic variables that affect the model prediction were slope and altitude,and their contribution rates were 56.3461%and 32.6982%,accumulated to 89.0443%.The response curves of environmental characteristic variables show that in addition to the soil moisture index,the six factors of slope,aspect,altitude,soil brightness index,greenness index and road distance are all negatively correlated with the habitat suitability of the Baer’s Pochard.It is recommended to move the human activity area between the core zone and the experimental zone as much as possible to expand the actual effective area of the Baer’s Pochard in the core zone and the experimental zone,thereby effectively increasing the suitable habitat of the Baer’s Pochard.