中俄在中亚市场的出口竞争研究——基于动态促进效应的实证分析

Export Competition between China and Russia in Central Asia:An Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Promotion Effects

伴随中国经济崛起并扩大在中亚市场的经济存在,有关中俄两国在中亚的出口竞争问题虽被广泛提及,但少有实证分析。采用统计描述法对2000~2019年中俄两国在中亚的出口态势进行长期比较分析,发现尽管中国在中亚的市场地位持续提升,但俄罗斯在中亚的影响力大体保持稳定。作者使用2003~2019年中亚五国共40种两位数编码产品贸易数据,构建动态引力模型并运用系统GMM估计方法实证检验中亚市场上中国出口对俄罗斯出口的影响。结果表明,中国出口并未挤占俄罗斯在中亚的出口空间。相反,无论整个中亚区域还是单个国家,无论是全部商品层面还是聚焦制成品领域,中国出口对俄罗斯出口均具有积极带动作用。再将中国对中亚的投资作为调节变量纳入引力模型,发现中国出口的带动作用部分源于中国投资的正向外溢效应。

Empirical studies of export competition between China and Russia in Central Asia are inadequate although the topic is widely discussed. Conducting an analysis of China and Russia’s export over the 2000-2019 period adopting the method of descriptive statistics,this paper concludes that Russia’s influence on Central Asia has not been weakened by China ’s rising performance in this region. In particular,the impact of China’s export upon that of Russia is tested by establishing a dynamic gravity model and using a systematic GMM estimation based on 40 categories of 2-digit codes for Central Asia’s trade data over the 2003-2019 period. The findings of this study indicate that China’s export has positive effect on that of Russia and thus it has no crowding-out effect on Russia’s trade with Central Asia. The leading role of China’s export is resulted from the positive externality effect of Chinese investment in Central Asia when it is integrated into the model as an adjustment variable.