复杂系统下的多中心与中亚经济的依附性增长

Polycentricity and Central Asia’s Dependent Growth under Complex Systems

从中亚经济发展的进程来看,建立市场经济的条件基本形成后,出口导向型成为中亚国家普遍选择的发展战略。随着出口导向型经济的发展,中亚国家经济依附也逐步多元化,从单一中心转向多中心,即全球中心、地区中心和国家中心。通过运用合作博弈论中地形理论、集中比较与统计分析相结合的方法发现,多中心对中亚经济依附性增长具有较强的促进作用。全球中心是中亚经济依附性增长的前提,中亚经济对其依附水平仅次于国家中心。全球中心促使中亚国家制度变革、选择市场化并融入世界经济。地区中心是经济增长的必要条件,中亚对东亚的依附水平要高于西欧和北美,但西欧的潜力巨大,因为它能弥补中亚对资金、技术和市场的需求。国家中心是经济增长基础,是目前中亚经济依附水平最高的中心。中亚"有限接触或融合"的合作策略既维持了与传统依附国的关系,又增加了区域经济合作的凝聚力。作为边缘地区,中亚经济增长离不开对多中心的依附,多中心也会激励中亚经济形成自己的特色。在数字化世界中,中亚国家的边缘地位在时空上会有所改善,但依然会在资金和技术上依附多中心,从而实现经济增长。

The economic feature of Central Asian countries shifted gradually from a unicentric to a polycentric dependency. Using cooperative game theory and concentrated comparison combined with statistical analysis,this paper concludes that polycentricity significantly boosted Central Asia’s dependent growth.Prerequisite for Central Asia’s dependent growth,global centricity facilitated the region’s institutional change,marketization and integration into world economy. In terms of regional centricity as a necessary condition for economic growth,Western Europe is able to fill Central Asia ’s demand for funds,technology and market despite the fact that Central Asia ’s dependency on East Asia is even higher.National centricity,the basis for economic growth,is the highest level of dependency for Central Asia whose economic growth cannot be divorced from the dependence on polycentricity which helps develop regional characteristics. In the digital era,the region is still expected to manifest polycentric dependency regarding funds and technology.