中国—中东欧国家合作中的“债务陷阱论”辨析——以中国在黑山、北马其顿和匈牙利的基建项目为例

"Debt Traps" in Sino-CEEC Cooperation:A Study Base on China’s Infrastructure Projects in Montenegro,North Macedonia and Hungary

当前西方国家刻意制造中国给债务国带来"债务陷阱"的论调。在中国—中东欧国家合作中,中国在黑山、北马其顿和匈牙利等国的基建融资项目也未能幸免。但中国的相关研究视角尚需下沉,才能更有针对性地予以辨析与驳斥。鉴于此,该研究详细分析了上述三国的公共债务、偿债能力、债权人结构和西方主要债权人的融资特点。除债务问题被政治化这一因素之外,中国涉欧基建项目被抹黑的原因还有两点:一是中国打破了黑山、北马其顿和匈牙利以往的外国债权人结构,进一步降低了西方融资机构的债权占比;二是中国与主要西方融资机构的融资模式存在差异。事实上,黑山、北马其顿和匈牙利的公共债务水平并未因中国的贷款而暴涨。虽然三国政府财政盈余水平较弱,但三国经济复苏的前景可期。未来,中国可有选择性地借鉴西方主要融资机构的经验,拓宽融资渠道并引入私人资本,以此来进一步深化中欧合作。

The West is holding China responsible for the "debt traps" in which the debtor countries are caught and China ’ s financing projects for infrastructure construction in Montenegro,North Macedonia and Hungary in Sino-CEEC cooperation are criticized. In response to this situation,a detailed analysis of public debt,solvency,creditor structure and financing features of major creditors from the West is conducted. Apart from the politicization of the debt issue,such a fabrication can be explained by the declining ratio of western financing institutions stemming from the implementation of China’s projects together with the difference in financing patterns between China and the West.Loans from China have no impact on the level of public debt of the three countries whose economy are expected to recover regardless of the tiny amount of their fiscal surplus. For the cooperation to be deepened,it is advisable for China to expand financing channels and introduce private capital by making adaptive use of the experiences of western financing institutions.